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The gambler's fallacy.

Gold, Eric.

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The gambler's fallacy.

Record Type:	Language materials, printed : Monograph/item
Title/Author:	The gambler's fallacy./
Author:	Gold, Eric.
Description:	216 p.
Notes:	Chair: Robyn Dawes.
Contained By:	Dissertation Abstracts International58-07B.
Subject:	Psychology, Experimental. -
Online resource:	http://pqdd.sinica.edu.tw/twdaoapp/servlet/advanced?query=9802536
ISBN:	9780591522563

The gambler's fallacy.
Gold, Eric.

The gambler's fallacy. - 216 p.

Chair: Robyn Dawes.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--Carnegie Mellon University, 1997.

The gambler's fallacy is a mistaken belief that a past repetition of the same independent, random outcome somehow increases the probability of a different future random outcome. The belief that a coin will come up tails after a run of heads is an example of the fallacy.

ISBN: 9780591522563Subjects--Topical Terms:

517106
Psychology, Experimental.

The gambler's fallacy.
LDR:02621nam 2200313 a 45 001 968298
005 20110915
008 110915s1997 eng d
020 $a 9780591522563
035 $a (UMI)AAI9802536
035 $a AAI9802536
040 $a UMI $c UMI
100 1 $a Gold, Eric. $3 1292153
245 1 4 $a The gambler's fallacy.
300 $a 216 p.
500 $a Chair: Robyn Dawes.
500 $a Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 58-07, Section: B, page: 3950.
502 $a Thesis (Ph.D.)--Carnegie Mellon University, 1997.
520 $a The gambler's fallacy is a mistaken belief that a past repetition of the same independent, random outcome somehow increases the probability of a different future random outcome. The belief that a coin will come up tails after a run of heads is an example of the fallacy.
520 $a This dissertation attempts to discover the nature and mechanism of this kind of perceived dependence by examining situations in which the gambler's fallacy can be found and ways in which the fallacy can be reduced or increased. The experiments presented here are designed to increase our knowledge of how people conceptualize independence, and thus lead to a better understanding of representativeness, illusion of control, and luck.
520 $a If people believe that there is a dependency among trials, they must also believe that there is a mechanism effecting that dependency. The dissertation takes up the task of locating that mechanism. One possibility is that any group of events that people can arrange into a category defines a process underlying the generation of those random events, and independent events created by that process will be perceived to be dependent on one another. In this case, events created by two different processes would not be perceived as dependent.
520 $a Another possibility is that locus of the mechanism is the gambling device itself. Here, people may engage in some sort of mental bookkeeping in which they associate due outcomes with a particular device. Such an explanation may require that subjects engage in a seemingly implausible "relationship" with the device, one in which both the ability to effect outcomes and the volition to do so are unknowingly attributed to the device. Through eighteen experiments, the dissertation argues for this explanation.
590 $a School code: 0041.
650 4 $a Psychology, Experimental. $3 517106
650 4 $a Psychology, Social. $3 529430
690 $a 0451
690 $a 0623
710 2 0 $a Carnegie Mellon University. $3 1018096
773 0 $t Dissertation Abstracts International $g 58-07B.
790 $a 0041
790 1 0 $a Dawes, Robyn, $e advisor
791 $a Ph.D.
792 $a 1997
856 4 0 $u http://pqdd.sinica.edu.tw/twdaoapp/servlet/advanced?query=9802536