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Climate change and ecosystem impacts...

The University of Arizona., Geosciences.

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Climate change and ecosystem impacts associated with shifts in the mid-latitude storm track in the western United States.

Record Type:	Language materials, printed : Monograph/item
Title/Author:	Climate change and ecosystem impacts associated with shifts in the mid-latitude storm track in the western United States./
Author:	McAfee, Stephanie Anne.
Description:	200 p.
Notes:	Advisers: Joellen Russel; Jonathan Overpeck.
Contained By:	Dissertation Abstracts International70-06B.
Subject:	Atmospheric Sciences. -
Online resource:	http://pqdd.sinica.edu.tw/twdaoeng/servlet/advanced?query=3360180
ISBN:	9781109245905

Climate change and ecosystem impacts associated with shifts in the mid-latitude storm track in the western United States.
McAfee, Stephanie Anne.

Climate change and ecosystem impacts associated with shifts in the mid-latitude storm track in the western United States. - 200 p.

Advisers: Joellen Russel; Jonathan Overpeck.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--The University of Arizona, 2009.

One of the more robust 21st century projections from the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report (IPCC AR4) is a northward shift in the mean location of the Northern Hemisphere storm track. In the western United States, cool-season precipitation provides most of the water for domestic and industrial consumption, irrigation and power generation. In addition, winter precipitation is particularly effective in recharging soil moisture; as a result, it provides a strong control on the productivity of vegetation and on wildfire. Consequently, there is great interest in understanding (1) how changes in the storm track influence regional climate; (2) spatial and temporal variability in its impact; (3) how well general circulation models simulate the regional climate dynamics that bring precipitation to the West; and (4) whether errors in climate simulation might impact assessment of ecological changes.

ISBN: 9781109245905Subjects--Topical Terms:

1019179
Atmospheric Sciences.

Climate change and ecosystem impacts associated with shifts in the mid-latitude storm track in the western United States.
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020 $a 9781109245905
035 $a (UMI)AAI3360180
035 $a AAI3360180
040 $a UMI $c UMI
100 1 $a McAfee, Stephanie Anne. $3 1019597
245 1 0 $a Climate change and ecosystem impacts associated with shifts in the mid-latitude storm track in the western United States.
300 $a 200 p.
500 $a Advisers: Joellen Russel; Jonathan Overpeck.
500 $a Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 70-06, Section: B, page: .
502 $a Thesis (Ph.D.)--The University of Arizona, 2009.
520 $a One of the more robust 21st century projections from the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report (IPCC AR4) is a northward shift in the mean location of the Northern Hemisphere storm track. In the western United States, cool-season precipitation provides most of the water for domestic and industrial consumption, irrigation and power generation. In addition, winter precipitation is particularly effective in recharging soil moisture; as a result, it provides a strong control on the productivity of vegetation and on wildfire. Consequently, there is great interest in understanding (1) how changes in the storm track influence regional climate; (2) spatial and temporal variability in its impact; (3) how well general circulation models simulate the regional climate dynamics that bring precipitation to the West; and (4) whether errors in climate simulation might impact assessment of ecological changes.
520 $a In order to investigate climate change in the western United States associated with shifts in the storm track, I analyzed the relationship between climate and the Northern Annular Mode (NAM). When the storm track is displaced to the north, there is an earlier transition to warm-season circulation patterns and weather conditions. However, the relationship between the winter NAM and climate is not stable over time. Further analysis identified changes in the correlations between the NAM and tree-ring width, precipitation and temperatures associated with changes in the phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation.
520 $a Examining 18 of the IPCC AR4 coupled climate models demonstrated cool-season precipitation errors approaching 300% over western North America. These errors are related to difficulties in representing orography, given the coarse resolution of models, and they may influence the quality of precipitation projections into the future. A simple test using the Koppen classification system found that these precipitation errors lead to underestimating the area of the United States in dryland ecosystem types by up to 89% and consequently allowed for much greater expansion of dryland in the future than is actually likely. These studies suggest that the West is likely to experience greater drought in the future. However, no single tool can yet quantify that change.
590 $a School code: 0009.
650 4 $a Atmospheric Sciences. $3 1019179
650 4 $a Geology. $3 516570
690 $a 0372
690 $a 0725
710 2 $a The University of Arizona. $b Geosciences. $3 1019596
773 0 $t Dissertation Abstracts International $g 70-06B.
790 $a 0009
790 1 0 $a Betancourt, Julio $e committee member
790 1 0 $a Fless, Karl $e committee member
790 1 0 $a Overpeck, Jonathan, $e advisor
790 1 0 $a Russel, Joellen, $e advisor
790 1 0 $a Woodhouse, Connie $e committee member
791 $a Ph.D.
792 $a 2009
856 4 0 $u http://pqdd.sinica.edu.tw/twdaoeng/servlet/advanced?query=3360180