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Examining Regime Shifts and Metapopu...

Sorenson, Darian,

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Examining Regime Shifts and Metapopulation Persistence Modeling as Methods for Informing Conservation Decisions /

Record Type:	Electronic resources : Monograph/item
Title/Author:	Examining Regime Shifts and Metapopulation Persistence Modeling as Methods for Informing Conservation Decisions // Darian Sorenson.
Author:	Sorenson, Darian,
Description:	1 electronic resource (67 pages)
Notes:	Source: Dissertations Abstracts International, Volume: 86-11, Section: B.
Contained By:	Dissertations Abstracts International86-11B.
Subject:	Applied mathematics. -
Online resource:	https://pqdd.sinica.edu.tw/twdaoapp/servlet/advanced?query=31770360
ISBN:	9798314858844

Examining Regime Shifts and Metapopulation Persistence Modeling as Methods for Informing Conservation Decisions /
Sorenson, Darian,

Examining Regime Shifts and Metapopulation Persistence Modeling as Methods for Informing Conservation Decisions /Darian Sorenson. - 1 electronic resource (67 pages)

Source: Dissertations Abstracts International, Volume: 86-11, Section: B.

Marine systems pose a variety of challenges (e.g. species protection, data collection, economic decisions, and effects of climate change) for conservation and fisheries management. I examined two challenges here. The first is detecting and predicting regime shifts. Most current methods predict an impending shift but are unable to characterize the new regime - a critical gap when evaluating costly interventions aimed a suppressing a shift. Here we show that incorporating the putative driver into an empirical dynamic model predicts the dynamics in the new regime in addition to tipping points - without the need to specify an ecosystem model. As a proof of concept, we demonstrate accurate predictions of the qualitative dynamics at unobserved values of the driver in a range of simulated systems.The second challenge examined is understanding metapopulation persistence, especially in marine protected areas (MPAs). We extend our understanding of the effects of autocorrelation in dispersal on metapopulation persistence under homogeneous patch conditions for two metapopulation connectivity setups. We find that perfectly negative autocorrelated dispersal maximizes the metapopulation growth rate. Under this dispersal sequence, we derive lower bounds for metapopulation persistence that reaffirm the concept that persistence relies on cycles through a metapopulation. In addition, we examine the relationship between autocorrelation in dispersal and a metapopulation's growth rate.We then extended this by examining how autocorrelation in dispersal and increasing a patch's growth rate interact to affect the metapopulation's growth rate. We find that the metapopulation growth rate is larger when dispersal is negatively autocorrelated (instead of positively), regardless of individual patch growth rates. We also find that for any fixed autocorrelation in dispersal, increasing the growth rates in the interior of the metapopulation led to the largest increase in metapopulation growth rate; however, determining which interior patch impacts the metapopulation growth rate the most is harder to discern due to the stochasticity in dispersal. In addition, we examine the trade offs between increasing a patch's growth rate on the edge or interior of the metapopulation.For conservation efforts, this work helps inform decisions around placement of reserves and connectivity, and for restoration efforts, this work helps inform decisions around which patch(es) restoration should be focused on.

English

ISBN: 9798314858844Subjects--Topical Terms:

2122814
Applied mathematics.
Subjects--Index Terms:

Autocorrelated dispersal

Examining Regime Shifts and Metapopulation Persistence Modeling as Methods for Informing Conservation Decisions /
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245 1 0 $a Examining Regime Shifts and Metapopulation Persistence Modeling as Methods for Informing Conservation Decisions / $c Darian Sorenson.
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500 $a Source: Dissertations Abstracts International, Volume: 86-11, Section: B.
500 $a Advisors: Hastings, Alan Committee members: Largier, John; Botsford, Louis.
502 $b Ph.D. $c University of California, Davis $d 2025.
520 $a Marine systems pose a variety of challenges (e.g. species protection, data collection, economic decisions, and effects of climate change) for conservation and fisheries management. I examined two challenges here. The first is detecting and predicting regime shifts. Most current methods predict an impending shift but are unable to characterize the new regime - a critical gap when evaluating costly interventions aimed a suppressing a shift. Here we show that incorporating the putative driver into an empirical dynamic model predicts the dynamics in the new regime in addition to tipping points - without the need to specify an ecosystem model. As a proof of concept, we demonstrate accurate predictions of the qualitative dynamics at unobserved values of the driver in a range of simulated systems.The second challenge examined is understanding metapopulation persistence, especially in marine protected areas (MPAs). We extend our understanding of the effects of autocorrelation in dispersal on metapopulation persistence under homogeneous patch conditions for two metapopulation connectivity setups. We find that perfectly negative autocorrelated dispersal maximizes the metapopulation growth rate. Under this dispersal sequence, we derive lower bounds for metapopulation persistence that reaffirm the concept that persistence relies on cycles through a metapopulation. In addition, we examine the relationship between autocorrelation in dispersal and a metapopulation's growth rate.We then extended this by examining how autocorrelation in dispersal and increasing a patch's growth rate interact to affect the metapopulation's growth rate. We find that the metapopulation growth rate is larger when dispersal is negatively autocorrelated (instead of positively), regardless of individual patch growth rates. We also find that for any fixed autocorrelation in dispersal, increasing the growth rates in the interior of the metapopulation led to the largest increase in metapopulation growth rate; however, determining which interior patch impacts the metapopulation growth rate the most is harder to discern due to the stochasticity in dispersal. In addition, we examine the trade offs between increasing a patch's growth rate on the edge or interior of the metapopulation.For conservation efforts, this work helps inform decisions around placement of reserves and connectivity, and for restoration efforts, this work helps inform decisions around which patch(es) restoration should be focused on.
546 $a English
590 $a School code: 0029
650 4 $a Applied mathematics. $3 2122814
650 4 $a Ecology. $3 516476
650 4 $a Conservation biology. $3 535736
653 $a Autocorrelated dispersal
653 $a Conservation management
653 $a Gaussian process
653 $a Metapopulation persistence
653 $a Regime shifts
653 $a Stochastic dispersal
690 $a 0364
690 $a 0329
690 $a 0408
710 2 $a University of California, Davis. $b Applied Mathematics. $e degree granting institution. $3 3822960
720 1 $a Hastings, Alan $e degree supervisor.
773 0 $t Dissertations Abstracts International $g 86-11B.
790 $a 0029
791 $a Ph.D.
792 $a 2025
856 4 0 $u https://pqdd.sinica.edu.tw/twdaoapp/servlet/advanced?query=31770360