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Housing and the Macroeconomy /

Morris, Erika Dreyer,

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Housing and the Macroeconomy /

Record Type:	Electronic resources : Monograph/item
Title/Author:	Housing and the Macroeconomy // Erika Dreyer Morris.
Author:	Morris, Erika Dreyer,
Description:	1 electronic resource (105 pages)
Notes:	Source: Dissertations Abstracts International, Volume: 73-06, Section: A.
Contained By:	Dissertations Abstracts International73-06A.
Subject:	Studies. -
Online resource:	https://pqdd.sinica.edu.tw/twdaoapp/servlet/advanced?query=3458916
ISBN:	9781124681009

Housing and the Macroeconomy /
Morris, Erika Dreyer,

Housing and the Macroeconomy /Erika Dreyer Morris. - 1 electronic resource (105 pages)

Source: Dissertations Abstracts International, Volume: 73-06, Section: A.

The housing market and the macroeconomy interact in numerous ways. Changes in home values affect household wealth and consumption decisions. Changes in the macroeconomy drive overall demand for and supply of housing. This dissertation examines interactions between the housing market and the macroeconomy. Chapters 1 and 2 identify the importance of age and future mobility as transmission channels for wealth effects from owner-occupied housing. Chapter 1 develops a model that considers the user cost of housing in calculations of net housing wealth. The model demonstrates that changes in user cost cause changes in housing wealth to be smaller than corresponding capital gains, and that this relationship differs across households according to age and mobility. Changes in the annuity value of net housing wealth are generally much smaller than capital gains, and the age and future mobility of a household each have large, distinct impacts on the MPC out of housing gains. Chapter 2 presents econometric tests of the model developed in Chapter 1. I use a maximum likelihood Heckman selection model on data from the PSID to estimate household mobility, and use fixed effects regression to examine the MPCs out of stock market and housing gains. I find that the MPC out of stock gains is smaller than that out of housing, that the MPC out of housing gains increases with age, and that mobility affects the response of consumption to home gains. Chapter 3 explores linkages between the housing market and business cycles, with a focus on housing market dynamics during recessions. It establishes empirical regularities in the markets for both new and existing homes for the following variables: home prices, inventories of unsold homes, sales volumes, the inventory-sales ratio, time on market, and new construction starts. I conclude that home prices are not good indicators of business cycles, and that sales volumes and starts are leading indicators of recessions. I find that the inventory-sales ratio is the strongest contemporaneous housing market indicator, and that it predicts housing starts. Finally, I find that the markets for new and existing homes move together, apart from the behavior of inventories.

English

ISBN: 9781124681009Subjects--Topical Terms:

3433795
Studies.
Subjects--Index Terms:

Business cycles

Housing and the Macroeconomy /
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245 1 0 $a Housing and the Macroeconomy / $c Erika Dreyer Morris.
264 1 $a Ann Arbor : $b ProQuest Dissertations & Theses, $c 2011
300 $a 1 electronic resource (105 pages)
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500 $a Source: Dissertations Abstracts International, Volume: 73-06, Section: A.
500 $a Publisher info.: Dissertation/Thesis.
500 $a Advisors: Barsky, Robert B.
502 $b Ph.D. $c University of Michigan $d 2011.
520 $a The housing market and the macroeconomy interact in numerous ways. Changes in home values affect household wealth and consumption decisions. Changes in the macroeconomy drive overall demand for and supply of housing. This dissertation examines interactions between the housing market and the macroeconomy. Chapters 1 and 2 identify the importance of age and future mobility as transmission channels for wealth effects from owner-occupied housing. Chapter 1 develops a model that considers the user cost of housing in calculations of net housing wealth. The model demonstrates that changes in user cost cause changes in housing wealth to be smaller than corresponding capital gains, and that this relationship differs across households according to age and mobility. Changes in the annuity value of net housing wealth are generally much smaller than capital gains, and the age and future mobility of a household each have large, distinct impacts on the MPC out of housing gains. Chapter 2 presents econometric tests of the model developed in Chapter 1. I use a maximum likelihood Heckman selection model on data from the PSID to estimate household mobility, and use fixed effects regression to examine the MPCs out of stock market and housing gains. I find that the MPC out of stock gains is smaller than that out of housing, that the MPC out of housing gains increases with age, and that mobility affects the response of consumption to home gains. Chapter 3 explores linkages between the housing market and business cycles, with a focus on housing market dynamics during recessions. It establishes empirical regularities in the markets for both new and existing homes for the following variables: home prices, inventories of unsold homes, sales volumes, the inventory-sales ratio, time on market, and new construction starts. I conclude that home prices are not good indicators of business cycles, and that sales volumes and starts are leading indicators of recessions. I find that the inventory-sales ratio is the strongest contemporaneous housing market indicator, and that it predicts housing starts. Finally, I find that the markets for new and existing homes move together, apart from the behavior of inventories.
546 $a English
590 $a School code: 0127
650 4 $a Studies. $3 3433795
650 4 $a Housing. $3 562261
650 4 $a Lifetime. $3 3684906
650 4 $a Houses. $3 3561814
650 4 $a Estimates. $3 3561047
650 4 $a Tenure. $3 3561541
650 4 $a Expenditures. $3 3556049
650 4 $a Life expectancy. $3 900290
650 4 $a Migration. $3 899018
650 4 $a Planning. $3 552734
650 4 $a Households. $3 579926
650 4 $a Equilibrium. $3 668417
650 4 $a Homeowners. $3 3564347
653 $a Business cycles
653 $a Consumer economics
653 $a Consumption
653 $a Housing
653 $a Macroeconomics
653 $a Wealth effect
690 $a 0501
710 2 $a University of Michigan. $e degree granting institution. $3 3815722
720 1 $a Barsky, Robert B. $e degree supervisor.
773 0 $t Dissertations Abstracts International $g 73-06A.
790 $a 0127
791 $a Ph.D.
792 $a 2011
856 4 0 $u https://pqdd.sinica.edu.tw/twdaoapp/servlet/advanced?query=3458916