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Spillover Effects of Us-China Trade ...

Balla, Egest,

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Spillover Effects of Us-China Trade Conflict on Third-Countries: Export and Labormarket Implications on Vietnam /

Record Type:	Electronic resources : Monograph/item
Title/Author:	Spillover Effects of Us-China Trade Conflict on Third-Countries: Export and Labormarket Implications on Vietnam // Egest Balla.
Author:	Balla, Egest,
Description:	1 electronic resource (34 pages)
Notes:	Source: Masters Abstracts International, Volume: 86-04.
Contained By:	Masters Abstracts International86-04.
Subject:	East Asian studies. -
Online resource:	https://pqdd.sinica.edu.tw/twdaoapp/servlet/advanced?query=31507923
ISBN:	9798342107730

Spillover Effects of Us-China Trade Conflict on Third-Countries: Export and Labormarket Implications on Vietnam /
Balla, Egest,

Spillover Effects of Us-China Trade Conflict on Third-Countries: Export and Labormarket Implications on Vietnam /Egest Balla. - 1 electronic resource (34 pages)

Source: Masters Abstracts International, Volume: 86-04.

This project analyzes the spillover effects of the 2018-2019 US-China trade conflict on Vietnam's exports and labor market. As the two largest trading partners of Vietnam imposed tariffs on each other's imports, Vietnam emerged as one of the biggest beneficiaries through export substitution and trade diversion. The recent trade war between the world's two largest economies provides an opportunity to study such third-country impacts. The analysis tests three main hypotheses using difference-in-differences models: (1) US tariffs on Chinese goods increased Vietnam's export values to the US in affected product categories; (2) Vietnam's export values to the rest of the world also grew for targeted products; and (3) employment, hours worked, and wages rose more for Vietnamese industries exposed to the trade war compared to less exposed ones. Identification relies on the timing of US tariff hikes on China during 2018-2019 serving as an exogenous trade policy shock. Controls for industry, product, origin, and time effects account for possible endogeneity concerns. The post-treatment period is limited to 2018-2019 due to the distortionary impact of COVID-19. Vietnam makes for an insightful case study due to its deep integration and direct competition with China across several export industries. This project contributes to research on trade policy spillovers and emerging market reactions to external shocks. It also highlights Vietnam's economic strategy of harnessing opportunities from China's transition up the value chain to expand its export manufacturing base.

English

ISBN: 9798342107730Subjects--Topical Terms:

3764093
East Asian studies.

Spillover Effects of Us-China Trade Conflict on Third-Countries: Export and Labormarket Implications on Vietnam /
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520 $a This project analyzes the spillover effects of the 2018-2019 US-China trade conflict on Vietnam's exports and labor market. As the two largest trading partners of Vietnam imposed tariffs on each other's imports, Vietnam emerged as one of the biggest beneficiaries through export substitution and trade diversion. The recent trade war between the world's two largest economies provides an opportunity to study such third-country impacts. The analysis tests three main hypotheses using difference-in-differences models: (1) US tariffs on Chinese goods increased Vietnam's export values to the US in affected product categories; (2) Vietnam's export values to the rest of the world also grew for targeted products; and (3) employment, hours worked, and wages rose more for Vietnamese industries exposed to the trade war compared to less exposed ones. Identification relies on the timing of US tariff hikes on China during 2018-2019 serving as an exogenous trade policy shock. Controls for industry, product, origin, and time effects account for possible endogeneity concerns. The post-treatment period is limited to 2018-2019 due to the distortionary impact of COVID-19. Vietnam makes for an insightful case study due to its deep integration and direct competition with China across several export industries. This project contributes to research on trade policy spillovers and emerging market reactions to external shocks. It also highlights Vietnam's economic strategy of harnessing opportunities from China's transition up the value chain to expand its export manufacturing base.
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