東華大學圖書館 |

語系: 繁體中文

說明(常見問題)

回圖書館首頁

手機版館藏查詢

登入

回首頁

切換: 標籤 | MARC模式 | ISBD

Quantifying Factors Impacting the Co...

Sikkandar Basha, Nazareen.

FindBook

Google Book

Amazon

博客來

Quantifying Factors Impacting the Cost of Large-Scale Complex Engineered Programs: A Communication Satellite Program Case Study.

紀錄類型:	書目-電子資源 : Monograph/item
正題名/作者:	Quantifying Factors Impacting the Cost of Large-Scale Complex Engineered Programs: A Communication Satellite Program Case Study./
作者:	Sikkandar Basha, Nazareen.
出版者:	Ann Arbor : ProQuest Dissertations & Theses, : 2024,
面頁冊數:	124 p.
附註:	Source: Dissertations Abstracts International, Volume: 85-12, Section: B.
Contained By:	Dissertations Abstracts International85-12B.
標題:	Aerospace engineering. -
電子資源:	https://pqdd.sinica.edu.tw/twdaoapp/servlet/advanced?query=31146701
ISBN:	9798382802589

Quantifying Factors Impacting the Cost of Large-Scale Complex Engineered Programs: A Communication Satellite Program Case Study.
Sikkandar Basha, Nazareen.

Quantifying Factors Impacting the Cost of Large-Scale Complex Engineered Programs: A Communication Satellite Program Case Study. - Ann Arbor : ProQuest Dissertations & Theses, 2024 - 124 p.

Source: Dissertations Abstracts International, Volume: 85-12, Section: B.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--Iowa State University, 2024.

Cost overruns in large-scale complex space programs are a recurring challenge, often leading to significant financial burdens. This research investigates the factors influencing cost overruns in a geosynchronous communication satellite program using model-based global sensitivity analysis (GSA) approach. A simulation model comprising a physics-based satellite model and a parametric cost model is employed for variance-based sensitivity analysis, using acquisition data for validation. The results of GSA using Sobol' analysis reveal that parameters related to system-based requirements significantly impact program costs. This study establishes a foundation for quantifying system parameter impact and uncertainty through a simulation-based model, aiding in cost overrun reduction during the design of future large-scale complex engineered space systems.Additionally, large-scale complex engineered systems (LSCES) also face substantial cost overruns during development. It is essential to identify parameters that impact program costs, but their behavior and uncertainty are often overlooked in global sensitivity analysis (GSA). This work utilizes Bayesian parameter inference to study parameter behavior and quantifies their uncertainty using a simulation-based framework. The physics-based satellite system and cost models form the basis for the simulation, while Bayesian inference is implemented through probabilistic programming with Markov Chain Monte Carlo. The analysis focuses on the advanced extremely high-frequency satellite (AEHF) program data from the selected acquisition report. The results demonstrate right-skewed distributions for parameters such as satellite transmitter power and technology readiness level, indicating proximity to their lower bounds. However, other parameters exhibit left-skewed distributions. This Bayesian approach is effective in estimating parameters, understanding their uncertainty, and assessing their impact on cost in space programs.Although the current study concentrates on a specific case of a geosynchronous communication satellite program, the insights gained and the approaches used could potentially be relevant for comprehending and alleviating cost overruns in a broader range of large-scale complex space programs (LSCSPs) and other LSCES. This research contributes to developing methodologies for identifying and quantifying critical parameters influencing cost overruns, ultimately aiding in the design and management of LSCSPs and LSCES.

ISBN: 9798382802589Subjects--Topical Terms:

1002622
Aerospace engineering.
Subjects--Index Terms:

Bayesian inference

Quantifying Factors Impacting the Cost of Large-Scale Complex Engineered Programs: A Communication Satellite Program Case Study.
LDR:03788nmm a2200397 4500 001 2403393
005 20241113060915.5
006 m o d
007 cr#unu||||||||
008 251215s2024 ||||||||||||||||| ||eng d
020 $a 9798382802589
035 $a (MiAaPQ)AAI31146701
035 $a AAI31146701
040 $a MiAaPQ $c MiAaPQ
100 1 $a Sikkandar Basha, Nazareen. $0 (orcid)0000-0002-8994-4969 $3 3773669
245 1 0 $a Quantifying Factors Impacting the Cost of Large-Scale Complex Engineered Programs: A Communication Satellite Program Case Study.
260 1 $a Ann Arbor : $b ProQuest Dissertations & Theses, $c 2024
300 $a 124 p.
500 $a Source: Dissertations Abstracts International, Volume: 85-12, Section: B.
500 $a Advisor: Leifsson, Leifur;Bloebaum, Christina;He, Ping.
502 $a Thesis (Ph.D.)--Iowa State University, 2024.
520 $a Cost overruns in large-scale complex space programs are a recurring challenge, often leading to significant financial burdens. This research investigates the factors influencing cost overruns in a geosynchronous communication satellite program using model-based global sensitivity analysis (GSA) approach. A simulation model comprising a physics-based satellite model and a parametric cost model is employed for variance-based sensitivity analysis, using acquisition data for validation. The results of GSA using Sobol' analysis reveal that parameters related to system-based requirements significantly impact program costs. This study establishes a foundation for quantifying system parameter impact and uncertainty through a simulation-based model, aiding in cost overrun reduction during the design of future large-scale complex engineered space systems.Additionally, large-scale complex engineered systems (LSCES) also face substantial cost overruns during development. It is essential to identify parameters that impact program costs, but their behavior and uncertainty are often overlooked in global sensitivity analysis (GSA). This work utilizes Bayesian parameter inference to study parameter behavior and quantifies their uncertainty using a simulation-based framework. The physics-based satellite system and cost models form the basis for the simulation, while Bayesian inference is implemented through probabilistic programming with Markov Chain Monte Carlo. The analysis focuses on the advanced extremely high-frequency satellite (AEHF) program data from the selected acquisition report. The results demonstrate right-skewed distributions for parameters such as satellite transmitter power and technology readiness level, indicating proximity to their lower bounds. However, other parameters exhibit left-skewed distributions. This Bayesian approach is effective in estimating parameters, understanding their uncertainty, and assessing their impact on cost in space programs.Although the current study concentrates on a specific case of a geosynchronous communication satellite program, the insights gained and the approaches used could potentially be relevant for comprehending and alleviating cost overruns in a broader range of large-scale complex space programs (LSCSPs) and other LSCES. This research contributes to developing methodologies for identifying and quantifying critical parameters influencing cost overruns, ultimately aiding in the design and management of LSCSPs and LSCES.
590 $a School code: 0097.
650 4 $a Aerospace engineering. $3 1002622
650 4 $a Systems science. $3 3168411
650 4 $a Industrial engineering. $3 526216
653 $a Bayesian inference
653 $a Cost overrun
653 $a Large complex systems
653 $a Parameter estimation
653 $a Parameter identification
653 $a Sensitivity analysis
690 $a 0538
690 $a 0790
690 $a 0546
710 2 $a Iowa State University. $b Aerospace Engineering. $3 1023643
773 0 $t Dissertations Abstracts International $g 85-12B.
790 $a 0097
791 $a Ph.D.
792 $a 2024
793 $a English
856 4 0 $u https://pqdd.sinica.edu.tw/twdaoapp/servlet/advanced?query=31146701