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The Colombian Forest Sector Model - ...

Martinez-Cortes, Oscar Geovani.

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The Colombian Forest Sector Model - An Analysis of Forest Plantation Policy in Colombia.

Record Type:	Electronic resources : Monograph/item
Title/Author:	The Colombian Forest Sector Model - An Analysis of Forest Plantation Policy in Colombia./
Author:	Martinez-Cortes, Oscar Geovani.
Published:	Ann Arbor : ProQuest Dissertations & Theses, : 2023,
Description:	286 p.
Notes:	Source: Dissertations Abstracts International, Volume: 85-01, Section: B.
Contained By:	Dissertations Abstracts International85-01B.
Subject:	Statistics. -
Online resource:	https://pqdd.sinica.edu.tw/twdaoapp/servlet/advanced?query=30420399
ISBN:	9798379763886

The Colombian Forest Sector Model - An Analysis of Forest Plantation Policy in Colombia.
Martinez-Cortes, Oscar Geovani.

The Colombian Forest Sector Model - An Analysis of Forest Plantation Policy in Colombia. - Ann Arbor : ProQuest Dissertations & Theses, 2023 - 286 p.

Source: Dissertations Abstracts International, Volume: 85-01, Section: B.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Toronto (Canada), 2023.

This item must not be sold to any third party vendors.

An economic model for the Colombian forest sector (Colombian Forest Sector Model - CFSM) is developed and used to analyse Colombia´s commercial forest plantation policy covering the 2018 - 2038 horizon (PFCm policy). The CFSM is a structural partial equilibrium econometric model that forecasts quantities and prices for the Colombian forest product markets using the neoclassical theory of competitive markets. Phase I of the CFSM (CFSM-I), developed in detail in this dissertation, includes a simulator of growth and yield for the Colombian forest plantations and two market (sub)models: for Unprocessed Wood and for Manufactured Wood Products. Using the CFSM-I, two PFCm policy goals were simulated to unveil their impacts on the Colombian forest sector. Simulations of an expansion of Colombia's forest plantation current area (0.3 million hectares, Mha, on Dec 2015) to 1.5 Mha by 2025 indicate that Colombia would increase the 2015-2047 volume available of industrial wood in plantations by 5 times (annually 20.8 million cubic meters of underbark roundwood, on average). In monetary values, this expansion would importantly impact the unprocessed wood market. Supply and exports of wood would multiply by 2.5 and 14.5 times in the next 25 years meanwhile its price of supply would drop by 24%, respectively, and on average, compared to the scenario of no expansion of the current plantations. Simulations of a 2023-2038 5.5-times expansion of the current (2022) production capacity of Colombia's manufactured wood forest products industry show that on average in the next 25 years and compared to the no expansion scenario, consumption of unprocessed wood and manufactured wood products of the pulp and paper industry would increase by 8% each, and the imports of the latter and of manufactured products of the furniture industry would decrease by 35% and 25%, respectively. Alternative policies of plantation area expansion (0.45 Mha, 0.765 Mha, and 2.0 Mha under sustained rotation, and 0.3 Mha harvested without replanting) also simulated enrich the set of information for policy makers and other stakeholders in preparation for the first round of the PFCm policy evaluation, scheduled for 2023 after the completion of its first implementation period in December 2022.

ISBN: 9798379763886Subjects--Topical Terms:

517247
Statistics.
Subjects--Index Terms:

Colombia

The Colombian Forest Sector Model - An Analysis of Forest Plantation Policy in Colombia.
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