東華大學圖書館 |

Language: English

Help

回圖書館首頁

手機版館藏查詢

Back

Switch To: Labeled | MARC Mode | ISBD

A general theory of evidence and pro...

Clermont, Kevin M.

Linked to FindBook

Google Book

Amazon

博客來

A general theory of evidence and proof = forming beliefs in truth /

Record Type:	Electronic resources : Monograph/item
Title/Author:	A general theory of evidence and proof/ by Kevin M. Clermont.
Reminder of title:	forming beliefs in truth /
Author:	Clermont, Kevin M.
Published:	Cham :Springer International Publishing : : 2024.,
Description:	vii, 234 p. :ill. (some col.), digital ;24 cm.
[NT 15003449]:	Introduction -- Kinds of Uncertainty -- Bivalent Probabilities -- Multivalent Beliefs -- Factfinding Deconstructed Logically -- Generalizing Beyond Factfinding -- Conclusion.
Contained By:	Springer Nature eBook
Subject:	Evidence (Law) - Philosophy. -
Online resource:	https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-66552-3
ISBN:	9783031665523

A general theory of evidence and proof = forming beliefs in truth /
Clermont, Kevin M.

A general theory of evidence and proofforming beliefs in truth /[electronic resource] :by Kevin M. Clermont. - Cham :Springer International Publishing :2024. - vii, 234 p. :ill. (some col.), digital ;24 cm. - Law and philosophy library,v. 1482215-0315 ;. - Law and philosophy library ;v. 148..

Introduction -- Kinds of Uncertainty -- Bivalent Probabilities -- Multivalent Beliefs -- Factfinding Deconstructed Logically -- Generalizing Beyond Factfinding -- Conclusion.

This book reframes the fundamentals of decisionmaking under uncertainty. For almost a century, theorists have spoken of truth-finding in terms of probability. They have said things like some past fact was 51% certain or proclaimed that in a civil dispute a fact must be shown to exceed a 50% likelihood. But such talk is a misleading misconception. The reason is that traditional probability fails to distinguish epistemic uncertainty from aleatory uncertainty. This conflation leads to mistakes such as invoking probability's product rules, which calculate a conjunction's likelihood as being low. From there, the theorists have argued that in a myriad of ways, the law violates the probability calculus unforgivably. Today, other theorists are newly realizing that in large part the law does not deal in probability. They now can defend the way that law has found facts since long before the invention of probability and on to the present. They are also reevaluating such intuitive practices as those that humans use in daily life to combine inferences upon inferences. A hotly contested literature has emerged. In a significant, comprehensive, and original contribution, this book develops a theoretical justification for the intuitive approaches that humans deploy across a broad range of decisionmaking. Instead of probability, the book focuses on degrees of belief that estimate, given the state of the evidence, how far a proposition has been fully proven. Instead of combining findings by the rules of probability, the book uses the rules of multivalent logic. The aim is to illuminate decisionmaking outside statistical analysis, showing that our ancient wisdom is in fact theoretically solid. The target is everyone interested in improving decisionmaking.

ISBN: 9783031665523

Standard No.: 10.1007/978-3-031-66552-3doiSubjects--Topical Terms:

1532839
Evidence (Law)
--Philosophy.

LC Class. No.: BF448

Dewey Class. No.: 153.83

A general theory of evidence and proof = forming beliefs in truth /
LDR:02992nmm a2200337 a 4500 001 2375248
003 DE-He213
005 20241002130245.0
006 m d
007 cr nn 008maaau
008 241231s2024 sz s 0 eng d
020 $a 9783031665523 $q (electronic bk.)
020 $a 9783031665516 $q (paper)
024 7 $a 10.1007/978-3-031-66552-3 $2 doi
035 $a 978-3-031-66552-3
040 $a GP $c GP
041 0 $a eng
050 4 $a BF448
072 7 $a LAB $2 bicssc
072 7 $a LAW000000 $2 bisacsh
072 7 $a LAB $2 thema
082 0 4 $a 153.83 $2 23
090 $a BF448 $b .C633 2024
100 1 $a Clermont, Kevin M. $3 890048
245 1 2 $a A general theory of evidence and proof $h [electronic resource] : $b forming beliefs in truth / $c by Kevin M. Clermont.
260 $a Cham : $b Springer International Publishing : $b Imprint: Springer, $c 2024.
300 $a vii, 234 p. : $b ill. (some col.), digital ; $c 24 cm.
490 1 $a Law and philosophy library, $x 2215-0315 ; $v v. 148
505 0 $a Introduction -- Kinds of Uncertainty -- Bivalent Probabilities -- Multivalent Beliefs -- Factfinding Deconstructed Logically -- Generalizing Beyond Factfinding -- Conclusion.
520 $a This book reframes the fundamentals of decisionmaking under uncertainty. For almost a century, theorists have spoken of truth-finding in terms of probability. They have said things like some past fact was 51% certain or proclaimed that in a civil dispute a fact must be shown to exceed a 50% likelihood. But such talk is a misleading misconception. The reason is that traditional probability fails to distinguish epistemic uncertainty from aleatory uncertainty. This conflation leads to mistakes such as invoking probability's product rules, which calculate a conjunction's likelihood as being low. From there, the theorists have argued that in a myriad of ways, the law violates the probability calculus unforgivably. Today, other theorists are newly realizing that in large part the law does not deal in probability. They now can defend the way that law has found facts since long before the invention of probability and on to the present. They are also reevaluating such intuitive practices as those that humans use in daily life to combine inferences upon inferences. A hotly contested literature has emerged. In a significant, comprehensive, and original contribution, this book develops a theoretical justification for the intuitive approaches that humans deploy across a broad range of decisionmaking. Instead of probability, the book focuses on degrees of belief that estimate, given the state of the evidence, how far a proposition has been fully proven. Instead of combining findings by the rules of probability, the book uses the rules of multivalent logic. The aim is to illuminate decisionmaking outside statistical analysis, showing that our ancient wisdom is in fact theoretically solid. The target is everyone interested in improving decisionmaking.
650 0 $a Evidence (Law) $x Philosophy. $3 1532839
650 0 $a Law and fact. $3 3724622
650 0 $a Decision making. $3 517204
650 0 $a Uncertainty. $3 529049
650 0 $a Truth. $3 526877
650 1 4 $a Theories of Law, Philosophy of Law, Legal History. $3 1565627
710 2 $a SpringerLink (Online service) $3 836513
773 0 $t Springer Nature eBook
830 0 $a Law and philosophy library ; $v v. 148. $3 3724621
856 4 0 $u https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-66552-3
950 $a Law and Criminology (SpringerNature-41177)