東華大學圖書館 |

Language: English

Help

回圖書館首頁

手機版館藏查詢

Back

Switch To: Labeled | MARC Mode | ISBD

Experts, social scientists, and tech...

Daye, Christian.

Linked to FindBook

Google Book

Amazon

博客來

Experts, social scientists, and techniques of prognosis in Cold War America

Record Type:	Electronic resources : Monograph/item
Title/Author:	Experts, social scientists, and techniques of prognosis in Cold War America/ by Christian Daye.
Author:	Daye, Christian.
Published:	Cham :Springer International Publishing : : 2020.,
Description:	xvi, 246 p. :ill., digital ;24 cm.
[NT 15003449]:	1. Introduction: A Culture of Insecurity and its Experts -- 2. Experts, Think Tanks, and the Delicate Balance of Public Trust. - 3. The Wisdom of the Group: RAND's First Experiments with Expert Prediction, 1947-1951 -- 4. Negotiating Rules for the Game: Political Games at RAND, 1954-1956 -- 5. The Oracle's Epistemology: Expert Opinions as Scientific Material -- 6.The Boredom of the Crowd: The Long-Range Forecasting Delphi, 1963-1964 -- 7. Conclusion: The Strength of Epistemic Hopes.
Contained By:	Springer eBooks
Subject:	Sociology - History. - United States -
Online resource:	https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-32781-1
ISBN:	9783030327811

Experts, social scientists, and techniques of prognosis in Cold War America
Daye, Christian.

Experts, social scientists, and techniques of prognosis in Cold War America[electronic resource] /by Christian Daye. - Cham :Springer International Publishing :2020. - xvi, 246 p. :ill., digital ;24 cm. - Socio-historical studies of the social and human sciences. - Socio-historical studies of the social and human sciences..

1. Introduction: A Culture of Insecurity and its Experts -- 2. Experts, Think Tanks, and the Delicate Balance of Public Trust. - 3. The Wisdom of the Group: RAND's First Experiments with Expert Prediction, 1947-1951 -- 4. Negotiating Rules for the Game: Political Games at RAND, 1954-1956 -- 5. The Oracle's Epistemology: Expert Opinions as Scientific Material -- 6.The Boredom of the Crowd: The Long-Range Forecasting Delphi, 1963-1964 -- 7. Conclusion: The Strength of Epistemic Hopes.

This book describes how Cold War researchers used expert opinions to construct foreknowledge of geopolitical relevance. Focusing on the RAND Corporation, an American think tank with close relations to the armed forces, Daye analyses the development of two techniques of prognosis, the Delphi technique and Political Gaming. Based on archival research and interviews, the chapters explore the history of this series of experiments to understand how contemporary social scientists conceived of one of the core categories of the Cold War, the expert, and uncover the systematic use of expert opinions to craft prognoses. This consideration of the expert's role in Cold War society and what that can tell us about the role of the expert today will be of interest to students and scholars across the history of science, the sociology of knowledge, future studies, the history of the Cold War, social science methodology, and social policy.

ISBN: 9783030327811

Standard No.: 10.1007/978-3-030-32781-1doiSubjects--Corporate Names:

3446734
Rand Corporation
--History.Subjects--Topical Terms:

528886
Sociology
--History.--United States

LC Class. No.: HM477.U6 / D393 2020

Dewey Class. No.: 301.0973

Experts, social scientists, and techniques of prognosis in Cold War America
LDR:02479nmm a2200337 a 4500 001 2215403
003 DE-He213
005 20200604111138.0
006 m d
007 cr nn 008maaau
008 201119s2020 sz s 0 eng d
020 $a 9783030327811 $q (electronic bk.)
020 $a 9783030327804 $q (paper)
024 7 $a 10.1007/978-3-030-32781-1 $2 doi
035 $a 978-3-030-32781-1
040 $a GP $c GP
041 0 $a eng
050 4 $a HM477.U6 $b D393 2020
072 7 $a JHB $2 bicssc
072 7 $a SOC026000 $2 bisacsh
072 7 $a JHB $2 thema
082 0 4 $a 301.0973 $2 23
090 $a HM477.U6 $b D275 2020
100 1 $a Daye, Christian. $3 3446733
245 1 0 $a Experts, social scientists, and techniques of prognosis in Cold War America $h [electronic resource] / $c by Christian Daye.
260 $a Cham : $b Springer International Publishing : $b Imprint: Palgrave Macmillan, $c 2020.
300 $a xvi, 246 p. : $b ill., digital ; $c 24 cm.
490 1 $a Socio-historical studies of the social and human sciences
505 0 $a 1. Introduction: A Culture of Insecurity and its Experts -- 2. Experts, Think Tanks, and the Delicate Balance of Public Trust. - 3. The Wisdom of the Group: RAND's First Experiments with Expert Prediction, 1947-1951 -- 4. Negotiating Rules for the Game: Political Games at RAND, 1954-1956 -- 5. The Oracle's Epistemology: Expert Opinions as Scientific Material -- 6.The Boredom of the Crowd: The Long-Range Forecasting Delphi, 1963-1964 -- 7. Conclusion: The Strength of Epistemic Hopes.
520 $a This book describes how Cold War researchers used expert opinions to construct foreknowledge of geopolitical relevance. Focusing on the RAND Corporation, an American think tank with close relations to the armed forces, Daye analyses the development of two techniques of prognosis, the Delphi technique and Political Gaming. Based on archival research and interviews, the chapters explore the history of this series of experiments to understand how contemporary social scientists conceived of one of the core categories of the Cold War, the expert, and uncover the systematic use of expert opinions to craft prognoses. This consideration of the expert's role in Cold War society and what that can tell us about the role of the expert today will be of interest to students and scholars across the history of science, the sociology of knowledge, future studies, the history of the Cold War, social science methodology, and social policy.
610 2 0 $a Rand Corporation $x History. $3 3446734
650 0 $a Sociology $z United States $x History. $3 528886
650 1 4 $a Knowledge - Discourse. $3 2068364
650 2 4 $a Historical Sociology. $3 2203517
650 2 4 $a Political Sociology. $3 2187162
650 2 4 $a Intellectual Studies. $3 2182229
650 2 4 $a US History. $3 2182301
710 2 $a SpringerLink (Online service) $3 836513
773 0 $t Springer eBooks
830 0 $a Socio-historical studies of the social and human sciences. $3 3309538
856 4 0 $u https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-32781-1
950 $a Social Sciences (Springer-41176)