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The Shift to Permanent Crops in Cali...

Mall, Natalie.

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The Shift to Permanent Crops in California's Central Valley with Implications for Agricultural Water Shortage Risks.

Record Type:	Electronic resources : Monograph/item
Title/Author:	The Shift to Permanent Crops in California's Central Valley with Implications for Agricultural Water Shortage Risks./
Author:	Mall, Natalie.
Published:	Ann Arbor : ProQuest Dissertations & Theses, : 2019,
Description:	64 p.
Notes:	Source: Masters Abstracts International, Volume: 80-12.
Contained By:	Masters Abstracts International80-12.
Subject:	Agriculture. -
Online resource:	http://pqdd.sinica.edu.tw/twdaoapp/servlet/advanced?query=13422063
ISBN:	9781392212240

The Shift to Permanent Crops in California's Central Valley with Implications for Agricultural Water Shortage Risks.
Mall, Natalie.

The Shift to Permanent Crops in California's Central Valley with Implications for Agricultural Water Shortage Risks. - Ann Arbor : ProQuest Dissertations & Theses, 2019 - 64 p.

Source: Masters Abstracts International, Volume: 80-12.

Thesis (M.S.)--University of California, Davis, 2019.

This item must not be sold to any third party vendors.

California's Central Valley is one of the world's most productive agricultural regions. Its high-value fruit, vegetable, and nut crops rely on water from a vast network of reservoirs and canals as well as groundwater, which has been substantially overdrafted to support agricultural expansion. Recent decades have seen a major shift to permanent (tree) crops, which has increased irrigation needs even in drought years to avoid lost investment. This study analyzes the shift to permanent crops in the Tulare Lake Basin, the southernmost part of the Central Valley with little natural water supply. A gridded crop type dataset is compiled on a 1 mi2 spatial resolution from a historical database of pesticide permits over the period 1974-2016, and validated against aggregated county-level data. This spatial dataset is then analyzed by irrigation district to identify trends in planting decisions. While these trends show some relationship with sub-regional surface water accessibility and yearly differences in statewide precipitation and reservoir levels, they have been driven primarily by market forces. From this data, we estimate historical trends in agricultural water demand, focusing on the increasing minimum irrigation needs each growing season to sustain tree crops. This shift in water demand, known as demand hardening, will leave some irrigation districts more vulnerable to surface water drought and tightening groundwater pumping regulations, because farmers can no longer leave land fallow as they would with annual crops. Results indicate that under a range of plausible groundwater curtailment scenarios, water supplies may fail to consistently meet the water demands for some regions within the basin, leading to a range of economic vulnerabilities depending on planting decisions within districts. The dataset developed in this work will provide a baseline for validating spatially distributed crop choice models in the integrated water-agriculture system. More broadly, these findings can help responses to economic and climate projections to reduce the impacts of water supply shortages from intensifying water demand in the agricultural sector.

ISBN: 9781392212240Subjects--Topical Terms:

518588
Agriculture.

The Shift to Permanent Crops in California's Central Valley with Implications for Agricultural Water Shortage Risks.
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500 $a Publisher info.: Dissertation/Thesis.
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502 $a Thesis (M.S.)--University of California, Davis, 2019.
506 $a This item must not be sold to any third party vendors.
520 $a California's Central Valley is one of the world's most productive agricultural regions. Its high-value fruit, vegetable, and nut crops rely on water from a vast network of reservoirs and canals as well as groundwater, which has been substantially overdrafted to support agricultural expansion. Recent decades have seen a major shift to permanent (tree) crops, which has increased irrigation needs even in drought years to avoid lost investment. This study analyzes the shift to permanent crops in the Tulare Lake Basin, the southernmost part of the Central Valley with little natural water supply. A gridded crop type dataset is compiled on a 1 mi2 spatial resolution from a historical database of pesticide permits over the period 1974-2016, and validated against aggregated county-level data. This spatial dataset is then analyzed by irrigation district to identify trends in planting decisions. While these trends show some relationship with sub-regional surface water accessibility and yearly differences in statewide precipitation and reservoir levels, they have been driven primarily by market forces. From this data, we estimate historical trends in agricultural water demand, focusing on the increasing minimum irrigation needs each growing season to sustain tree crops. This shift in water demand, known as demand hardening, will leave some irrigation districts more vulnerable to surface water drought and tightening groundwater pumping regulations, because farmers can no longer leave land fallow as they would with annual crops. Results indicate that under a range of plausible groundwater curtailment scenarios, water supplies may fail to consistently meet the water demands for some regions within the basin, leading to a range of economic vulnerabilities depending on planting decisions within districts. The dataset developed in this work will provide a baseline for validating spatially distributed crop choice models in the integrated water-agriculture system. More broadly, these findings can help responses to economic and climate projections to reduce the impacts of water supply shortages from intensifying water demand in the agricultural sector.
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