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Overconfidence and risk taking in foreign policy decision making = the case of Turkey's Syria policy /

Record Type:	Electronic resources : Monograph/item
Title/Author:	Overconfidence and risk taking in foreign policy decision making/ by Imran Demir.
Reminder of title:	the case of Turkey's Syria policy /
Author:	Demir, Imran.
Published:	Cham :Springer International Publishing : : 2017.,
Description:	xvii, 142 p. :ill., digital ;24 cm.
[NT 15003449]:	1. Introduction -- 2. The Relevant Literature on Past Outcomes, Overconfidence and Risk Taking -- 3. Modeling the Relationship between Past Outcomes, Overconfidence and Risk Taking-- 4. The Turkish Policy to Remove Syrian President Assad: Overconfidence Obscures Risks and Magnifies Failure -- 5. Why Turkish Overconfidence Was Too Obvious -- 6. Conclusion.
Contained By:	Springer eBooks
Subject:	International relations - Decision making. -
Online resource:	http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-52605-8
ISBN:	9783319526058

Overconfidence and risk taking in foreign policy decision making = the case of Turkey's Syria policy /
Demir, Imran.

Overconfidence and risk taking in foreign policy decision makingthe case of Turkey's Syria policy /[electronic resource] :by Imran Demir. - Cham :Springer International Publishing :2017. - xvii, 142 p. :ill., digital ;24 cm.

1. Introduction -- 2. The Relevant Literature on Past Outcomes, Overconfidence and Risk Taking -- 3. Modeling the Relationship between Past Outcomes, Overconfidence and Risk Taking-- 4. The Turkish Policy to Remove Syrian President Assad: Overconfidence Obscures Risks and Magnifies Failure -- 5. Why Turkish Overconfidence Was Too Obvious -- 6. Conclusion.

This book introduces a new perspective on risk seeking behaviour, developing a framework based on various cognitive theories, and applying it to the specific case-study of Turkey's foreign policy toward Syria. The author examines why policy makers commit themselves to polices that they do not have the capacity to deliver, and develops an alternative theoretical model to prospect theory in explaining risk taking behaviour based on the concept of overconfidence. The volume suggests that overconfident individuals exhibit risk seeking behaviour that contradicts the risk averse behaviour of individuals in the domain of gain, as predicted by prospect theory. Using a set of testable hypothesis deduced from the model, it presents an empirical investigation of the causes behind Turkish decision makers' unprecedented level of risk taking toward the uprising in Syria and the consequences of this policy.

ISBN: 9783319526058

Standard No.: 10.1007/978-3-319-52605-8doiSubjects--Topical Terms:

650714
International relations
--Decision making.

LC Class. No.: JZ1253 / .D46 2017

Dewey Class. No.: 327.101

Overconfidence and risk taking in foreign policy decision making = the case of Turkey's Syria policy /
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100 1 $a Demir, Imran. $3 3227752
245 1 0 $a Overconfidence and risk taking in foreign policy decision making $h [electronic resource] : $b the case of Turkey's Syria policy / $c by Imran Demir.
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300 $a xvii, 142 p. : $b ill., digital ; $c 24 cm.
505 0 $a 1. Introduction -- 2. The Relevant Literature on Past Outcomes, Overconfidence and Risk Taking -- 3. Modeling the Relationship between Past Outcomes, Overconfidence and Risk Taking-- 4. The Turkish Policy to Remove Syrian President Assad: Overconfidence Obscures Risks and Magnifies Failure -- 5. Why Turkish Overconfidence Was Too Obvious -- 6. Conclusion.
520 $a This book introduces a new perspective on risk seeking behaviour, developing a framework based on various cognitive theories, and applying it to the specific case-study of Turkey's foreign policy toward Syria. The author examines why policy makers commit themselves to polices that they do not have the capacity to deliver, and develops an alternative theoretical model to prospect theory in explaining risk taking behaviour based on the concept of overconfidence. The volume suggests that overconfident individuals exhibit risk seeking behaviour that contradicts the risk averse behaviour of individuals in the domain of gain, as predicted by prospect theory. Using a set of testable hypothesis deduced from the model, it presents an empirical investigation of the causes behind Turkish decision makers' unprecedented level of risk taking toward the uprising in Syria and the consequences of this policy.
650 0 $a International relations $x Decision making. $3 650714
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650 2 4 $a Middle Eastern Politics. $3 2195274
650 2 4 $a Comparative Politics. $3 1566074
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