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The construction and assessment of a...

Flood, Andrew Peter.

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The construction and assessment of a simulation model to describe the impact of dietary change on the epidemiologic transition and its consequences in China.

紀錄類型:	書目-電子資源 : Monograph/item
正題名/作者:	The construction and assessment of a simulation model to describe the impact of dietary change on the epidemiologic transition and its consequences in China./
作者:	Flood, Andrew Peter.
面頁冊數:	562 p.
附註:	Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 59-11, Section: B, page: 5795.
Contained By:	Dissertation Abstracts International59-11B.
標題:	Nutrition. -
電子資源:	http://pqdd.sinica.edu.tw/twdaoapp/servlet/advanced?query=9910238
ISBN:	9780599085664

The construction and assessment of a simulation model to describe the impact of dietary change on the epidemiologic transition and its consequences in China.
Flood, Andrew Peter.

The construction and assessment of a simulation model to describe the impact of dietary change on the epidemiologic transition and its consequences in China. - 562 p.

Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 59-11, Section: B, page: 5795.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--Cornell University, 1999.

This item must not be sold to any third party vendors.

The dietary pattern in rural China during the early 1980's was still largely staple grain-based, but the dietary habits of the population are changing rapidly. The typical direction of dietary change for industrializing countries is toward a diet high in fat, rich in animal foods and low in fiber. It is not clear that this is a desirable end point in terms of public health and other societal consequences.

ISBN: 9780599085664Subjects--Topical Terms:

517777
Nutrition.

The construction and assessment of a simulation model to describe the impact of dietary change on the epidemiologic transition and its consequences in China.
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500 $a Advisor: T. Colin Campbell.
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520 $a The dietary pattern in rural China during the early 1980's was still largely staple grain-based, but the dietary habits of the population are changing rapidly. The typical direction of dietary change for industrializing countries is toward a diet high in fat, rich in animal foods and low in fiber. It is not clear that this is a desirable end point in terms of public health and other societal consequences.
520 $a To assess the impact of dietary change, a model was constructed allowing predictions of chronic disease rates that result as a consequence of changes in nutritional experience for the population. Several analytic strategies (OLS regression, factor analysis, and threshold testing) were used to establish relationships among 11 prominent chronic diseases and the key elements of dietary exposure in an ecologic study of 65 rural Chinese counties. These analyses provided only partial models. A modified meta-analysis was performed to determine what modifications of the initial models would allow the final result to take into account the role of other well established determinants of disease rates.
520 $a Following completion of the models, several simulation scenarios were constructed to allow for the comparison of alternative potential future dietary patterns in terms of chronic disease outcomes. The three scenarios receiving primary interest had distinct dietary characteristics. The first was a staple grain-based diet, the second was a Western-style, animal food-based diet, and the third was a diversified, plant-based diet.
520 $a The simulation models projected much higher rates of premature mortality from chronic disease under the Western-style diet scenario than under the diversified plant-based diet scenario (2.12 million vs. .28 million premature deaths per year). These projected rates of mortality suggest the cost to the health care system of treating disease would be 6.95 times higher under the animal food-based diet scenario than under the plant-based diet alternative. These rates of mortality also suggest an annual loss of productive output to premature death of at least $9.69 billion (US) compared to only $1.33 billion with the plant-centered diet.
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