東華大學圖書館 |

Language: English

Help

回圖書館首頁

手機版館藏查詢

Back

Switch To: Labeled | MARC Mode | ISBD

People make bad choices with high co...

Zarow, Gregory John.

Linked to FindBook

Google Book

Amazon

博客來

People make bad choices with high confidence.

Record Type:	Electronic resources : Monograph/item
Title/Author:	People make bad choices with high confidence./
Author:	Zarow, Gregory John.
Description:	130 p.
Notes:	Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 61-06, Section: B, page: 3305.
Contained By:	Dissertation Abstracts International61-06B.
Subject:	Psychology, Cognitive. -
Online resource:	http://pqdd.sinica.edu.tw/twdaoapp/servlet/advanced?query=9975876
ISBN:	0599815590

People make bad choices with high confidence.
Zarow, Gregory John.

People make bad choices with high confidence. - 130 p.

Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 61-06, Section: B, page: 3305.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of California, San Diego, 2000.

Static models of choice based on Economic Utility or Subjective Expected Utility predict that people will always choose the better of two side-by-side items if it is unambiguously clear which of the two items is more likely to maximize Expected Utility.

ISBN: 0599815590Subjects--Topical Terms:

1017810
Psychology, Cognitive.

People make bad choices with high confidence.
LDR:03174nmm 2200337 4500 001 1865134
005 20041216142215.5
008 130614s2000 eng d
020 $a 0599815590
035 $a (UnM)AAI9975876
035 $a AAI9975876
040 $a UnM $c UnM
100 1 $a Zarow, Gregory John. $3 1952595
245 1 0 $a People make bad choices with high confidence.
300 $a 130 p.
500 $a Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 61-06, Section: B, page: 3305.
500 $a Chair: John T. Wixted.
502 $a Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of California, San Diego, 2000.
520 $a Static models of choice based on Economic Utility or Subjective Expected Utility predict that people will always choose the better of two side-by-side items if it is unambiguously clear which of the two items is more likely to maximize Expected Utility.
520 $a Within the framework of probabilistic iterative forced choice with feedback, the traditional Probability Learning paradigm, the present research defends the position that we robustly refuse to always take the better of two items even when extreme measures are taken to foster static maximization. Further, data are presented to defend the proposition that these bad choices are sometimes made with high confidence.
520 $a As participants in one of five experiments 347 subjects made 10 to 400 repeated choices. In Part I, Experiments I, II and III explored the effects on choice of making odds knowledge available or not available; the effect of experience; the effects of social pressure and choice justifiability; and the effects of stating the probable outcome of events with known probabilities. None of these manipulation was demonstrated sufficient to cause exclusive choice of the better item.
520 $a Contrary to predictions of mathematical models of trial-and-error which predict choice proportionate to either the objective or subjective odds, choice was proportionate to neither the objective odds nor the subjective odds. Further, making odds knowledge available to subjects made choice less representative of the odds.
520 $a In Part II, Experiments IV and V utilized response latency to validate a confidence measure taken simultaneously with choice and demonstrate further evidence that even when a better choice is equally available, people sometimes make choices that are unlikely to pay off. Further, these bad choices are sometimes made with high confidence, whether or not the odds are made available to the subjects.
520 $a As these data are consistent with the hypothesis that confidence in choice varies from trial-to-trial, a modified signal detection account is presented which predicts that choice and choice confidence will vary from trial-to-trial. Signal detection makes counterintuitive predications in choice, including bad choices and bad choices made with high confidence.
590 $a School code: 0033.
650 4 $a Psychology, Cognitive. $3 1017810
650 4 $a Psychology, Experimental. $3 517106
690 $a 0633
690 $a 0623
710 2 0 $a University of California, San Diego. $3 1018093
773 0 $t Dissertation Abstracts International $g 61-06B.
790 1 0 $a Wixted, John T., $e advisor
790 $a 0033
791 $a Ph.D.
792 $a 2000
856 4 0 $u http://pqdd.sinica.edu.tw/twdaoapp/servlet/advanced?query=9975876