Chang, Ming-Jen

exchange rate, exchange rate prediction output gap private capital public capital Inflation political instabilities Business cycles economic growth matrix completion Taylor rule monetary policy rule cyclical balance Exchange rate Real interest rate parity uncertainty index treatment effects government deficit and surplus amacro-finance zero-coupon rate debt sovereign debt default risk economic convergence government debt COVID-19 economic integration inflation targeting emerging markets and developing economies synthetic control european union Interest rate differential Consumption behavior sub-saharan Africa fiscal policy Open economy government spending term structure of interest rate granger causality