Chang, Ming-Jen

exchange rate, exchange rate prediction output gap private capital public capital Inflation political instabilities Economic fluctuations Business cycles economic growth matrix completion Consumption Taylor rule monetary policy rule cyclical balance Exchange rate Real interest rate parity uncertainty index treatment effects Impulse responses Variance decomposition government deficit and surplus amacro-finance zero-coupon rate debt sovereign debt default risk economic convergence Fiscal stimulus Output government debt COVID-19 economic integration inflation targeting emerging markets and developing economies synthetic control european union Interest rate differential Consumption behavior sub-saharan Africa fiscal policy Open economy government spending term structure of interest rate granger causality