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Essays on Public Debt in Latin Ameri...

Urquhart, Magaly Duarte.

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Essays on Public Debt in Latin America and the Caribbean and Paraguay.

Record Type:	Electronic resources : Monograph/item
Title/Author:	Essays on Public Debt in Latin America and the Caribbean and Paraguay./
Author:	Urquhart, Magaly Duarte.
Published:	Ann Arbor : ProQuest Dissertations & Theses, : 2023,
Description:	303 p.
Notes:	Source: Dissertations Abstracts International, Volume: 85-12, Section: A.
Contained By:	Dissertations Abstracts International85-12A.
Subject:	Sustainability. -
Online resource:	https://pqdd.sinica.edu.tw/twdaoapp/servlet/advanced?query=31179311
ISBN:	9798383024591

Essays on Public Debt in Latin America and the Caribbean and Paraguay.
Urquhart, Magaly Duarte.

Essays on Public Debt in Latin America and the Caribbean and Paraguay. - Ann Arbor : ProQuest Dissertations & Theses, 2023 - 303 p.

Source: Dissertations Abstracts International, Volume: 85-12, Section: A.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--The University of Manchester (United Kingdom), 2023.

This thesis presents three connected essays on public debt. The first essay explores the nexus between public debt and economic growth, conditional on the quality of institutions in a sample composed of Latin American and the Caribbean countries from 1970 to 2018. The empirical strategy begins by implementing OLS, FE and GMM techniques to consider nonlinearities through the analysis of interaction terms, followed by three-panel models to account for regime effects, mitigate endogeneity and consider transition effects using institutions as the threshold variable. The results reveal that improving institutions can positively impact the debt-growth relationship. In this regard, higher public debt harms economic growth in countries where institutions are below the threshold. In countries with institutions above the threshold, however, the negative impact of public debt on economic growth diminishes.The second essay investigates the public debt-inflation link and the assumptions of the FTPL using quarterly data from Paraguay over the period 1993-2019. To do so, a monetary structural var (SVAR) is extended to include fiscal variables and the analysis is conducted by splitting the sample according to monetary regimes. The results reveal that failing to consider the change in monetary regime can produce misleading conclusions. Indeed, during the MA regime, under an active fiscal policy and passive monetary policy regime, higher debt leads to inflation shortly after the shock. During the IT regime, when the monetary policy became active, inflation remains under the control of the Central Bank. Hence, an increase in public debt does not result in inflation. However, if both policies continue to be active, this can lead to debt sustainability concerns.The third essay explores the debt sustainability path in Paraguay. It seeks to address whether the debt is sustainable given the current international, regional and local context by evaluating the impact of different macroeconomic shocks using quarterly data. The study delivers a comprehensive empirical analysis of debt sustainability by adopting a stochastic simulation model, allowing the assessment under diverse fiscal and monetary policy rules. The results show that public debt in Paraguay is indeed sustainable. However, combined shocks might affect this path in the near future. This possibility can be minimised by introducing a public debt target rule.

ISBN: 9798383024591Subjects--Topical Terms:

1029978
Sustainability.

Essays on Public Debt in Latin America and the Caribbean and Paraguay.
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520 $a This thesis presents three connected essays on public debt. The first essay explores the nexus between public debt and economic growth, conditional on the quality of institutions in a sample composed of Latin American and the Caribbean countries from 1970 to 2018. The empirical strategy begins by implementing OLS, FE and GMM techniques to consider nonlinearities through the analysis of interaction terms, followed by three-panel models to account for regime effects, mitigate endogeneity and consider transition effects using institutions as the threshold variable. The results reveal that improving institutions can positively impact the debt-growth relationship. In this regard, higher public debt harms economic growth in countries where institutions are below the threshold. In countries with institutions above the threshold, however, the negative impact of public debt on economic growth diminishes.The second essay investigates the public debt-inflation link and the assumptions of the FTPL using quarterly data from Paraguay over the period 1993-2019. To do so, a monetary structural var (SVAR) is extended to include fiscal variables and the analysis is conducted by splitting the sample according to monetary regimes. The results reveal that failing to consider the change in monetary regime can produce misleading conclusions. Indeed, during the MA regime, under an active fiscal policy and passive monetary policy regime, higher debt leads to inflation shortly after the shock. During the IT regime, when the monetary policy became active, inflation remains under the control of the Central Bank. Hence, an increase in public debt does not result in inflation. However, if both policies continue to be active, this can lead to debt sustainability concerns.The third essay explores the debt sustainability path in Paraguay. It seeks to address whether the debt is sustainable given the current international, regional and local context by evaluating the impact of different macroeconomic shocks using quarterly data. The study delivers a comprehensive empirical analysis of debt sustainability by adopting a stochastic simulation model, allowing the assessment under diverse fiscal and monetary policy rules. The results show that public debt in Paraguay is indeed sustainable. However, combined shocks might affect this path in the near future. This possibility can be minimised by introducing a public debt target rule.
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