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Effects of Climate Change on the Pow...

Ralston Fonseca, Francisco.

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Effects of Climate Change on the Power System: A Case Study of the Southeast U.S.

Record Type:	Electronic resources : Monograph/item
Title/Author:	Effects of Climate Change on the Power System: A Case Study of the Southeast U.S./
Author:	Ralston Fonseca, Francisco.
Published:	Ann Arbor : ProQuest Dissertations & Theses, : 2020,
Description:	170 p.
Notes:	Source: Dissertations Abstracts International, Volume: 81-10, Section: B.
Contained By:	Dissertations Abstracts International81-10B.
Subject:	Engineering. -
Online resource:	http://pqdd.sinica.edu.tw/twdaoapp/servlet/advanced?query=27740488
ISBN:	9781658454810

Effects of Climate Change on the Power System: A Case Study of the Southeast U.S.
Ralston Fonseca, Francisco.

Effects of Climate Change on the Power System: A Case Study of the Southeast U.S. - Ann Arbor : ProQuest Dissertations & Theses, 2020 - 170 p.

Source: Dissertations Abstracts International, Volume: 81-10, Section: B.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--Carnegie Mellon University, 2020.

This item must not be sold to any third party vendors.

The U.S. power sector faces several vulnerabilities due to climate change. On the demand side, increasing temperatures may result in shifting electricity consumption patterns and increase need for energy. On the supply side, changes in air temperatures, water availability, and water temperatures could reduce the capacity and efficiency of thermal units, which currently represent 85% of generating capacity. Previous studies that analyze climate change effects in the power sector have mostly focused on analyzing these risks separately. Further, studies in the supply side risks usually looked only at effects of climate change only in existing thermal generators. However, such studies fail to capture how these demand and supply risks interact with each other and with the operation of the power grid in general. In order to analyze these risks in more detail, it is important to integrate them into system-wide assessments. Such assessments should take into account the economic dispatch of the complete generator fleet and future economic decisions to expand this fleet. This dissertation attempts to understand how climate change will affect the power sector in the U.S. We implemented an integrated framework where we use different modeling methods to represent the different risks the power sector faces due to climate change. We used our modeling framework in a case study of the SERC Reliability Corporation (SERC), one of eight regional electric reliability councils under North American Electric Reliability Corporation authority (NERC).Firstly, we used an econometric model to estimate changes in hourly electricity demand due to climate change. We used this model to analyze changes hourly electricity demand patterns in the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) region for different seasons of the year. Our results suggest that climate change could result in an average increase in annual electricity consumption in the TVA region. However, this increase was not uniformly distributed throughout the year. During summer, total electricity consumption could increase on average by 20% while during winter it may decrease on average by 6% by the end of the century.Secondly, we combined the estimates of future hourly electricity demand described in Chapter 2 with simulations of decreases in available capacity of thermal generators due to climate change. We integrated these simulations in a capacity expansion (CE) model. This CE model is a mixed integer linear programming (MILP) model that we adapted and developed for this study. It finds the composition of the future generator fleet that minimizes costs subject to the estimated effects of climate change. We ran this model under different climate change scenarios from 2020 to 2050. Our results showed that by including these effects due to climate change in the decision making process, the estimated participation of renewables in the generator fleet in 2050 increased from 24% to over 37-40%. Solar power plants could become more economically attractive. As they have higher energy output during the summertime, they could help to offset the climate-induced loss of thermal capacity during this season because of higher air and water temperatures. Thirdly, we simulated the operation of SERC's power system assuming the different scenarios and generator fleets presented in Chapter 3. To accomplish this, we used a unit commitment and economic dispatch (UCED) model. The UECD model is a mixed integer linear programming (MILP) model that we adapted and developed for this study. We used this model to investigate the tradeoffs between investing or not in the generator fleet assuming different climate change scenarios. Our results suggest that by not including climate change effects in the planning stage, SERC's power system could experience loss of load levels of 12% and overall energy costs could be 260% higher if climate change conditions do materialize by 2050.

ISBN: 9781658454810Subjects--Topical Terms:

586835
Engineering.
Subjects--Index Terms:

Climate change

Effects of Climate Change on the Power System: A Case Study of the Southeast U.S.
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520 $a The U.S. power sector faces several vulnerabilities due to climate change. On the demand side, increasing temperatures may result in shifting electricity consumption patterns and increase need for energy. On the supply side, changes in air temperatures, water availability, and water temperatures could reduce the capacity and efficiency of thermal units, which currently represent 85% of generating capacity. Previous studies that analyze climate change effects in the power sector have mostly focused on analyzing these risks separately. Further, studies in the supply side risks usually looked only at effects of climate change only in existing thermal generators. However, such studies fail to capture how these demand and supply risks interact with each other and with the operation of the power grid in general. In order to analyze these risks in more detail, it is important to integrate them into system-wide assessments. Such assessments should take into account the economic dispatch of the complete generator fleet and future economic decisions to expand this fleet. This dissertation attempts to understand how climate change will affect the power sector in the U.S. We implemented an integrated framework where we use different modeling methods to represent the different risks the power sector faces due to climate change. We used our modeling framework in a case study of the SERC Reliability Corporation (SERC), one of eight regional electric reliability councils under North American Electric Reliability Corporation authority (NERC).Firstly, we used an econometric model to estimate changes in hourly electricity demand due to climate change. We used this model to analyze changes hourly electricity demand patterns in the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) region for different seasons of the year. Our results suggest that climate change could result in an average increase in annual electricity consumption in the TVA region. However, this increase was not uniformly distributed throughout the year. During summer, total electricity consumption could increase on average by 20% while during winter it may decrease on average by 6% by the end of the century.Secondly, we combined the estimates of future hourly electricity demand described in Chapter 2 with simulations of decreases in available capacity of thermal generators due to climate change. We integrated these simulations in a capacity expansion (CE) model. This CE model is a mixed integer linear programming (MILP) model that we adapted and developed for this study. It finds the composition of the future generator fleet that minimizes costs subject to the estimated effects of climate change. We ran this model under different climate change scenarios from 2020 to 2050. Our results showed that by including these effects due to climate change in the decision making process, the estimated participation of renewables in the generator fleet in 2050 increased from 24% to over 37-40%. Solar power plants could become more economically attractive. As they have higher energy output during the summertime, they could help to offset the climate-induced loss of thermal capacity during this season because of higher air and water temperatures. Thirdly, we simulated the operation of SERC's power system assuming the different scenarios and generator fleets presented in Chapter 3. To accomplish this, we used a unit commitment and economic dispatch (UCED) model. The UECD model is a mixed integer linear programming (MILP) model that we adapted and developed for this study. We used this model to investigate the tradeoffs between investing or not in the generator fleet assuming different climate change scenarios. Our results suggest that by not including climate change effects in the planning stage, SERC's power system could experience loss of load levels of 12% and overall energy costs could be 260% higher if climate change conditions do materialize by 2050.
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